Tesla (TSLA) vehicle insurance registrations in China last week fell sequentially as the global EV giant's deliveries appear set come in below Q2 2023 levels. TSLA shares edged lower Tuesday.
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Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 11,700 for the week of June 10-16, down 2.5% from 12,000 the previous week, according to data reported by CnEVPost Tuesday. Vehicle registrations in China tend to drop at the beginning of each month before picking up toward end of the month, according to local reports.
With two weeks left in the second quarter, Tesla China insurance registrations are up around 12% compared to the seasonally slow first quarter but down about 9% vs. the same time frame in 2023.
Meanwhile, Tesla China deliveries in May came in at 72,573, down 6.6% vs. a year earlier and up 16.7% vs. April. The U.S. EV company sold 55,215 vehicles in China in May, up 30% vs. May 2023, according to data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Tesla sold 15,230 Model 3 vehicles during May in China, marking a 33% year-on-year increase. The company's Model Y deliveries in China jumped 29% in May compared to a year ago.
Through the end of May in 2024, Tesla China deliveries are down 7.1% compared to the first five months in 2023.
Q2 Delivery Outlook
While Tesla Q2 vehicle registrations in China are trailing last year's tally, analysts predict global Q2 Tesla deliveries will total 444,000 vehicles. That would be down more than 4% compared to last year's 466,140 deliveries. However, it would be a 15% increase compared to Q1.
Tesla hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023.
Tesla reported in early April that global first-quarter deliveries totaled 386,810 while it produced 433,371 vehicles. The deliveries included a combined 369,783 Model 3 and Model Y units along with 17,027 "other" vehicles.
Tesla's 386,810 deliveries tally in Q1 undercut even the lowest estimates and marks the lowest quarterly deliveries since 344,000 in Q2 2022. Since then, analysts have been revising lower delivery estimates, but the consensus figure adjusts slowly.
Tesla ended the first quarter with a global vehicle inventory of 28 days, up 87% compared to Q1 2023. Auto gross profit margins, excluding regulatory credits, came in at 16.4%, above expectations of 15.9%.
Chief Executive Elon Musk said on the first-quarter earnings call he expects 2024 vehicle deliveries to grow compared to 2023. The EV giant saw deliveries in 2023 hit a record 1.81 million. However, EV demand appears to be slowing this year.
"We think Q2 will be a lot better," Musk added on the earnings call.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA dropped 1.4% to 184.86 during market action on Tuesday. Tesla stock bolted 5.3% higher to 187.44 on Monday.
Last week, Tesla stock gained 0.3% to 178.01. On Thursday, shares hit an intraday high of 191.08, rebounding after slipping Tuesday below its 50-day moving average for the first time since May 13.
Tesla shareholders last week voted in favor of giving Musk his 2018 $56 billion pay package and reincorporating the EV giant in Texas, moving it from Delaware.
After five weeks of tight closes, Tesla stock appears to have forged a new base with a 198.87 buy point, according to MarketSurge charts. However, it is still below its 200-day moving average and is in a downtrend.
TSLA declined 2.8% in May and remain down 24% in 2024. However, Tesla has rallied since reporting first-quarter earnings and revenue on April 23, finding support just above its 50-day moving average.On April 22, Tesla stock hit a 52-week low of 138.80.
Robotaxi And Tesla Value
With the company's annual meeting in the rearview mirror, analysts are looking to Tesla's second-quarter earnings in mid-July. The company will also unveil its "robotaxi" on August 8.
Cathie Wood and her Ark Invest firm last week updated its Tesla stock price target to 2,600 by 2029. Wood has long been bullish on Tesla's autonomy push and robotaxi aims.
Wood's firm estimates that around 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029.
Without a robotaxi network and business, Ark Invest says its TSLA price target would be around $350 per share, according to the report.
JPMorgan analysts on Tuesday said robotaxi revenues could be years away. That followed discussions with Tesla investor relations team.
Tesla stock ranks seventh in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 5o Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares have a 20 Relative Strength Rating and a 62 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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